An Analytical Economic Study of Fish Production in Yemen During the Period 1990-2021

The study aimed to provide a rigorous economic analysis of fishery production in Yemen from 1990 to 2021. It highlighted the sector’s potential to enhance food security and national income, as well as its strategic importance. The fisheries sector contributes approximately 1.7% to the gross domestic product (GDP) and provides employment for approximately 700,000 people. Despite its extensive coastline and rich marine resources, Yemen's fishery production remains low, averaging only 159,258 tons per year. This figure is significantly below the sector’s sustainable capacity of 500,000 tons per year without compromising fish stock levels.

The results showed that the average fish production reached approximately 159,258 tons annually during the study period, with a general upward trend at an annual growth rate of 2.54%. However, the production efficiency of both fishermen and boats declined significantly. The productivity per fisherman dropped from 4.64 tons per fisherman in 2003 to 1.11 tons in 2018, and boat efficiency also deteriorated. The study attributes this decline to structural challenges such as lack of modern knowledge, absence of government support, high fishing costs, and the impact of the Conflict in Yemen, which has hindered access to fishing areas.

The study employed standard econometric models to estimate the impact of several economic variables (number of fishermen, number of boats, prices, consumption, and imports), in addition to a dummy variable reflecting the impact of the Conflict against production since 2015. The results revealed statistically significant positive relationships between production and both the number of fishermen and local consumption. Meanwhile, the model showed that the Conflict led to a 39.4% decrease in production, equivalent to a productivity loss of approximately 60,000 tons per year.

The study adopted a double-logarithmic model that explained 91% of the variations in fish production, making it a highly efficient model for interpreting the Yemeni reality. The study recommends formulating national strategies for the recovery of the fisheries sector, including supporting fishermen, developing infrastructure, and ensuring maritime security, in order to achieve food security and sustainable development.