Estimating the Probability of Qat Consumption Based on the Distinctive Characteristics of Yemeni Individual

Abstract

The consumption of qat is a deeply rooted practice in Yemeni society for centuries, initially beginning for religious and medicinal purposes before gradually spreading across all social classes, becoming a daily habit. Despite numerous studies highlighting the impacts of qat consumption on health, the economy, and social well-being, the behavioral patterns associated with this phenomenon have not significantly changed. This underscores the need for new approaches to analyze this complex issue. In the context of using computer-based social simulation relying on Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) to model the dynamics of qat consumption in Yemen, a sample of 545 individuals from the capital was analyzed using a stratified random sample in 2024. The study employed descriptive, analytical, and experimental methods with the goal of developing a model capable of simulating individual behavior in making decisions about qat consumption within a virtual society. Several hypotheses were tested to analyze the relationships between these factors and qat consumption, using multiple statistical tests and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to consolidate the initial variables into latent demographic, economic, social, and health factors. The model relies on a non-linear logistic regression equation to estimate the probability of qat consumption based on the individuals' demographic, economic, social, and health characteristics. The results showed that the model is an effective tool for predicting individual decisions regarding qat consumption, achieving an accuracy of 94.93% and an Area Under the Curve (AUC-ROC) of 98%. This model aids in a better understanding of the widespread impacts of qat consumption on public health and the economy, providing a valuable tool for developing effective intervention strategies within the context of social simulation.