The Belt and Road Initiative: Economic Opportunities, Challenges, and Cautions in the Yemeni Context

This study analyzes the economic opportunities and risks associated with Yemen's involvement in China's Belt and Road Initiative, focusing on Yemen's position within the initiative and how China utilizes economic and investment tools to achieve strategic influence in the region. It assesses whether the initiative represents economic development or an "economic constraint" that threatens sovereignty and deepens dependency. The study employs a descriptive-analytical approach to identify and analyze opportunities and risks, evaluate their potential economic and strategic implications, and considers national interest. The study's significance lies in its contribution to the academic literature on the Belt and Road Initiative by analyzing the central issue of "opportunities versus risks" within the Yemeni context. It proposes an innovative analytical model that allows for an analysis of how the project can simultaneously be both an opportunity and a threat, enabling a comprehensive understanding and analysis of the initiative's multifaceted impacts. This will help Yemeni decision-makers grasp the opportunities and risks before entering into strategic partnerships.

The study concluded that Yemen's strategic importance and natural resources make it a focus of interest for China, which pursues a policy of economic dominance through the Belt and Road Initiative investments. Despite the cooperative slogans, the initiative conceals purely economic objectives, as loans and projects are used as tools for indirect dominance, which portends new forms of dependency. Many of the initiative's projects in different countries have been characterized as unsustainable. The study concluded that the Belt and Road Initiative will not succeed in Yemen unless it is designed in accordance with Yemeni national priorities, ensuring the preservation of economic and political sovereignty, and identifying strategic projects that serve the Yemeni economy, thus preventing the relationship with China from turning into economic dependency or political influence. The study emphasizes that the success of the initiative in Yemen requires adopting a conscious negotiating policy that ensures a balanced distribution of benefits and the achievement of sustainable development.